Opposition politics in South Africa

The election has been something of a distraction from day-to-day things, so this will be my last posting on politics for a while. My continuing interest is the process of realignment of opposition politics and a hope that the process will move in such a way that leads us towards a political opposition that can pose a credible alternative to the ANC for significant numbers of our people – not because I believe that the ANC currently has unacceptable policies, but more because a democracy generally depends on people have choices between different political groupings that they can trust to represent their interests and to govern the country.

So, in this context, what do the results of last week’s elections mean for this realignment process?

The ANC remains the largest party, with more or less two thirds of the popular vote -having probably lost some votes to COPE and the DA and won some from the IFP and maybe some other smaller parties (the ANC won over 1m additional votes in KwaZulu Natal this time round – a major achievement).

The DA, having around 16% of the vote, remains the ‘official’ (largest) opposition party. They are still a long way from posing any real threat to the ANC at a national level – probably for at least the next 12 years – unless there is some radical realignment of the opposition parties. The DA won the Western Cape, and is the main opposition party in only 2 other provinces (Mpumalanga and Gauteng).

Interestingly, the DA’s election analysis document (available on their website, and which is a wonderful example of how to put a positive spin on a situation whilst ignoring some hard realities!) describes the DA as the “fastest growing” party in both the Free State and the Eastern Cape, despite the fact that COPE came from nowhere and leapfrogged above the DA in numbers of votes in both provinces!

COPE won around 7.5% of the national vote, so is well behind the DA overall, but oddly is now the 2nd largest party in 5 provinces (Northern Cape, North West, Limpopo, Free State and Eastern Cape) and so could also claim some recognition as a significant national opposition party.

Smaller parties – especially the Independent Democrats (ID), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and others, did less well and may be thinking about their political futures. Patricia de Lille of the ID has hinted that she may be thinking about what to do and that opposition parties should consider getting together.

If the smaller parties decide to roll up their tents and find a new political home, I would imagine that the ID and UDM and the remnants of the PAC would be more likely to move towards COPE than the DA – potentially, on 2009 voting figures, bringing COPE closer to the DA…

The Freedom Front Plus would probably be more likely to move towards the DA. It is not clear where the IFP votes would go but if COPE managed to win most of them we could have this scenario:

COPE (7.42%) + ID (0.92%) + UDM (0.85%) + ‘PAC’ (0.7%) + IFP (4.55%) = 14.45%

DA (16.66%) + FF+ (0.83%) + UCDP (0.37%) + MF (0.25%) = maybe 18%

In this scenario, the DA and COPE face a continuing battle for the role of official opposition, with the DA having to constantly look over its shoulder. The ANC would continue to win elections, with still no real alternative emerging. However if we put the realigned DA and COPE percentages together we go over 30% (maybe 32% on 2009 percentages).

Assuming that the ANC could struggle to retain 66% of the votes in the next elections, (and of course assuming that it stays together as a single party), we can then see the potential of a reorganised single opposition party going well over 35% in the 2014 election, and being able to position itself as an alternative government by 2019.

Do any of the opposition parties have the foresight to see this scenario, and the courage to take the first steps or make the first moves? My sense is that fortune will favour the brave.