Open Doors

As we move into 2009 should we be optimistic or pessimistic? There are plenty of reasons for both perspectives, in South Africa and elsewhere. The ‘credit crunch’ and associated market impact has left millions of middle class people around the world feeling anxious and uncertain, not least about their savings and investments for retirement years. Those millions of poor around the world, who have little to start with, are less vulnerable to the immediate impact, but are likely to see a slow-down in whatever development assistance may have reached their communities.

Conflict, in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere continues to stand in the way of prospects for democracy and development and in many ways appears to become more intractable. We face significant environmental and security challenges globally, and HIV and AIDS, TB and other diseases ravage families and communities particularly in southern Africa.

But there are signs of hope. We have a new President in the US who seems committed to multilateralism, signalling a possible break from the policies of George W Bush (now the most disliked US President in American history). A withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and the closing of Guantanamo Bay would be a good start.

Zimbabwe is still in crisis, but is probably moving into the end-game phase, with Mugabe slowly losing his grip on power and signs of disaffection within the military and his own Zanu-PF party.

In South Africa, we have a new political party (the Congress of the People) that, while it still has to articulate some policy directions that differentiate it from the ANC, offers hope that a realignment of the opposition can offer prospects of a credible alternative government in the future. We have a general election in 2009 from which a changed political landscape will emerge, and while the ANC will likely be the winners, we will also see a more ‘normal’ political dispensation coming about in which people cast their votes less along historically determined racial lines of allegiance, and more to reflect real political choices.

For now, the government led by Motlanthe, has shown prudence and caution in managing the country and the economy. The Minister of Health, Barbara Hogan, has won support from civil society and the media for her commitment to seriously addressing HIV and AIDS and moving away from the denialism of Thabo Mbeki and her predecessor.

But these are really just straws in the wind! In 2005, Shell produced a set of Global Scenarios for the year 2025, continuing a 30-year process of developing future scenarios for the global and business environment. The 2025 scenarios were developed as a consequence of changed thinking on global questions following 9/11.

Exploring issues of market efficiency (or lack thereof), social cohesion or disconnects, and global security (defined broadly to include terrorism, poverty, environmental degradation etc), and the trade-offs that will have to be made as the world grapples with these issues, the Shell scenario team identified 3 possible scenarios: Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors and Flags.

Low Trust Globalisation is characterised by legalism, increasing regulation, intrusive controls and oversight – a kind of ‘big brother’ scenario. Open Doors envisages increasing cross-border integration, voluntary regulation, a growth in public-private partnerships, and global networks addressing policy issues. Flags offers a retreat into nationalism and ‘laagers’, conflict over values, ideology and religion, and a break on globalisation.

These scenarios are offered as likely trends in a global ‘jet stream’, that recognises the existence of localised ‘weather systems’ in which particular parts of the world may gravitate more to one scenario than another, and which also recognises the potential for different ‘navigation’ strategies.

The scenario team worked with economic forecasting units in Oxford and Washington to project economic growth rates under each scenario. The Open Doors scenario provides the highest likely growth rate of 3.8%, leading to 40% higher levels of economic prosperity under this scenario than in Flags, and 17% higher than suggested by Low Trust Globalisation. While these are not forecasts, they nonetheless provide food for thought and a degree of incentive for anyone concerned with creating a better world.

The Shell Scenarios recognise the particular challenges in Africa as well as the opportunities that exist here. Institution building is identified as a critical variable for Africa if resources are to be effectively harnessed to development. This means building government capacity and accountability, improving donor-recipient engagement, and improving the prospects for public-private partnerships that can contribute to development.

'Born frees' complete primary school

Today the first of the ‘born free’ generation in South Africa completed their primary school education. I attended the final assembly at my twin boys’ primary school. It was moving to see the children, many in tears, bidding farewell to each other as they all depart to go their separate ways to high school in January. These children, now teenagers, are the children born in 1995 – the first full year of democracy in our land.

They entered primary school in 2002, and, then, it was hard to predict what kind of children they would turn out to be. Now we can tell! Different generations have been broadly categorised over the years in terms of their values, ideas and characteristics. These categories are based mainly on middle class urban generations over the past 100 years or so, and have been broadly defined (in American/European terms):

GI generation (born 1930-1945), Baby Boomers (born 1945-1960), Flower Power (born 1960 – 1975), Generation X (born 1975 – 1990), Millenium Generation (born 1990-2005). In South Africa, the millenium generation are seen as ‘born frees’ – those urban, generally middle class children growing up after the end of apartheid.

So what can we say about this generation? They very much represent the future of our country. From 2015 onwards they will be entering the workplace, bringing with them new ideas as a result of having come through a (relatively) non-racial education system. The exciting thing is that these young people are generally free of the prejudices and perverse norms that were encouraged in the apartheid education system. They are comfortable with diversity and cherish the values of our Constitution that support non-racism and non-sexism.

Further, they value strongly their individual identities as people, their unique talents, and their distinct but frequently overlapping cultural and religious identities. They see themselves first as South Africans, whether Indian, Muslim, Jewish, Afrikaans, Zulu, Chinese or whatever.

They are courteous and polite, and respectful to their teachers and to each other. At the same time they are not afraid to ask questions, be critical and to assert their own ideas. They are ingeneous and very computer-literate - indeed when they enter the workplace they will be the first employees to have been using computers since they were 5 years old! They are AIDS-aware and can become an HIV-free generation.

These teenagers appreciate the history of their country, although they cannot fully understand what it would have been like to go through an apartheid education system and not to have friends and school mates from different backgrounds. They do feel privileged to have been alive in the time of Mandela.

They are incredibly brand-aware (Ama Kip Kip!) and mediate their relationships via Mixit and Facebook - for the most part doing so responsibly.

So what does this mean? Perhaps my overriding sense is one of huge hope and optimism for the future. Our country will be safe in their hands as they grow up and take their responsibility as citizens and leaders of the future. There is no doubt that they will face huge challenges in continuing the process of rebuilding and developing the country. They will also have to play a leading role in ensuring that the whole continent of Africa is able to move beyond poverty and conflict, and walk the world stage in addressing global challenges, particularly relating to the environment.