SA 51st position in Legatum Index

The 2009 Legatum Prosperity Index, which measures the relative prosperity of 104 countries, rates South Africa at 51 overall.

The Legatum Institute describes itself as “an independent research, policy, and advocacy organisation that promotes political, economic and individual liberty in the developing and transitioning world”, and describes the Index as “the world’s only global assessment of wealth and wellbeing; unlike other studies that rank countries by actual levels of wealth, life satisfaction or development, the Prosperity Index produces rankings based upon the very foundations of prosperity – those factors that help drive economic growth and produce happy citizens over the long term”.

Well how independent the Institute actually is I cannot be sure. The Institute has an interest in ‘free markets’ and according to their website key personnel have links with the US National Security Council and the Heritage Foundation, so you may be able to form your own opinion.

Nonetheless the Prosperity Index makes interesting reading. The South Africa country profile is based on an assessment of 9 indices – economic fundamentals (regarded as unstable), entrepreneurship and innovation (moderate), democratic institutions (basic freedoms guaranteed “but there is interference in South Africa’s judiciary”), education, health, safety and security (“notable domestic security problems”), governance, personal freedom, and social capital.

On the social capital index, South Africa is ranked 30th overall, and the report notes that “social trust is low, with only 17% of individuals believing that other people can be trusted”. However, the social capital ranking is boosted as a result of reported high levels of organisational membership (especially religious affiliation), and a willingness to assist others in need.

The safety and security ranking (96th) gives cause for concern. The Index reports that “the South African government allegedly engages in practices such as torture or political imprisonment”, implying that torture and political imprisonment are used as instruments of state repression. The Amnesty International 2009 country report on South Africa (which I would consider a more credible source) indicates that “torture and other ill-treatment by police, prison warders and private security guards continued to be reported and sometimes led to the deaths of detainees”, but does not imply that this is done as a matter of state policy. Which is not to say that the South African government should not be doing more to prohibit the mistreatment of prisoners and detainees.

Interestingly, the US is rated 19th in terms of safety and security, despite one of the highest homicide rates in the world, the continued existence of the death penalty, and the use of torture, mistreatment and rendition by US forces around the world.

Working with electricity in Pretoria

For the last 2 weeks Paul Keursten and I have been working with the Imtech/Nova project in the east of Pretoria. The project is part of the Imtech BV corporate social responsibility programme and is working with the Nova Institute to promote the sustainable use of electricity in households as a contribution to addressing climate change. 6 people from Imtech have been working (together with people from Nova) in households in 3 distinct communities in the east of Pretoria (Mamelodi, Garsfontein and Woodhill).

In each household, the Imtech people have engaged with the residents over a 48-hour period to measure the electrical energy consumed by each individual appliance in the homes and to provide advice to reduce electricity consumption. The results have been very interesting, both from a social and from a technology perspective!

Major consumers of energy are geysers and fridge/freezers (especially when set at inappropriate or incorrect temperatures), TVs and other devices on stand-by, and over-filled kettles. This is true in all communities, regardless of income levels. It appears that households in all 3 communities could quite easily reduce their electricity consumption (and bills!) by up to 20% a month by taking some quite easy steps. Particularly important in the light of huge looming price increases for electricity over the next 3 years!

Paul and I have been facilitating the learning process in the project, and we framed the process in the heroic journey model (Home, Test, Quest, Shift, Gift). We have facilitated a learning and de-briefing session with the Imtech and Nova people at the end of each day, and have been fascinated to see how the group has developed in the course of the project. A big ‘shift’ is now occurring, in which the group members are increasingly seeing how providing information is only one part of a wider process of social change that requires community and individual engagement, and so the group is now looking at how to sustain the initiative over the longer term.

Peter Ngwenya

This post is dedicated to the life and memory of my friend Peter Ngwenya, who passed away recently. Peter was a remarkable man in many ways. He was above all a South African, who dedicated his life to transformation and development. His passion for supporting the growth and development of young people through theatre was unmatched, and the work he did through the Soweto Youth Drama Society was inspirational. He later changed the name to The Youth Drama Society, as he did not want to limit involvement of young people from other township areas.

Peter was warm, funny, deeply caring, and incredibly loyal to those he loved. He carried a lifelong intrigue for all people, especially from other cultures and across boundaries. From the township, he loved to visit the suburbs. He walked a global stage, but stayed rooted in Soweto. He embraced the new South Africa, while often frustrated and mystified by its bureaucracies, and was always open to learning. Above all he reached out to people and was a human being.

Hamba kahle Bra Peter.

"Strategic Foresight" needed...

Here is a link to an interesting article by Adam Habib published in The Sunday Times that explores (in a deeper and more articulate fashion!) some of the some ideas from my previous posting...

Opposition politics in South Africa

The election has been something of a distraction from day-to-day things, so this will be my last posting on politics for a while. My continuing interest is the process of realignment of opposition politics and a hope that the process will move in such a way that leads us towards a political opposition that can pose a credible alternative to the ANC for significant numbers of our people – not because I believe that the ANC currently has unacceptable policies, but more because a democracy generally depends on people have choices between different political groupings that they can trust to represent their interests and to govern the country.

So, in this context, what do the results of last week’s elections mean for this realignment process?

The ANC remains the largest party, with more or less two thirds of the popular vote -having probably lost some votes to COPE and the DA and won some from the IFP and maybe some other smaller parties (the ANC won over 1m additional votes in KwaZulu Natal this time round – a major achievement).

The DA, having around 16% of the vote, remains the ‘official’ (largest) opposition party. They are still a long way from posing any real threat to the ANC at a national level – probably for at least the next 12 years – unless there is some radical realignment of the opposition parties. The DA won the Western Cape, and is the main opposition party in only 2 other provinces (Mpumalanga and Gauteng).

Interestingly, the DA’s election analysis document (available on their website, and which is a wonderful example of how to put a positive spin on a situation whilst ignoring some hard realities!) describes the DA as the “fastest growing” party in both the Free State and the Eastern Cape, despite the fact that COPE came from nowhere and leapfrogged above the DA in numbers of votes in both provinces!

COPE won around 7.5% of the national vote, so is well behind the DA overall, but oddly is now the 2nd largest party in 5 provinces (Northern Cape, North West, Limpopo, Free State and Eastern Cape) and so could also claim some recognition as a significant national opposition party.

Smaller parties – especially the Independent Democrats (ID), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and others, did less well and may be thinking about their political futures. Patricia de Lille of the ID has hinted that she may be thinking about what to do and that opposition parties should consider getting together.

If the smaller parties decide to roll up their tents and find a new political home, I would imagine that the ID and UDM and the remnants of the PAC would be more likely to move towards COPE than the DA – potentially, on 2009 voting figures, bringing COPE closer to the DA…

The Freedom Front Plus would probably be more likely to move towards the DA. It is not clear where the IFP votes would go but if COPE managed to win most of them we could have this scenario:

COPE (7.42%) + ID (0.92%) + UDM (0.85%) + ‘PAC’ (0.7%) + IFP (4.55%) = 14.45%

DA (16.66%) + FF+ (0.83%) + UCDP (0.37%) + MF (0.25%) = maybe 18%

In this scenario, the DA and COPE face a continuing battle for the role of official opposition, with the DA having to constantly look over its shoulder. The ANC would continue to win elections, with still no real alternative emerging. However if we put the realigned DA and COPE percentages together we go over 30% (maybe 32% on 2009 percentages).

Assuming that the ANC could struggle to retain 66% of the votes in the next elections, (and of course assuming that it stays together as a single party), we can then see the potential of a reorganised single opposition party going well over 35% in the 2014 election, and being able to position itself as an alternative government by 2019.

Do any of the opposition parties have the foresight to see this scenario, and the courage to take the first steps or make the first moves? My sense is that fortune will favour the brave.

Election over - what next?

What a disappointing election campaign. I have been looking hard for interesting or even exciting things to write about, from an appreciative perspective!

There have been some positive aspects, some mentioned in my previous posting. It was good that COPE managed in the end to publish an election manifesto – find a link to it on their website. And good that the franchise was extended, as a result of a court case, to South Africans temporarily overseas – although more will need to be done to make it possible for South Africans living away from capital cities, perhaps by allowing an extended postal voting arrangement.

I cannot help but feel hugely disappointed by the opposition parties. While none of them excite me particularly, they (COPE and the DA in particular) had a real opportunity to establish themselves as real opposition parties that showed the potential to really contest for government at some point in the future. All was in their favour – widespread concern about a Zuma Presidency, infighting within the ANC leading to the splintering away of COPE, growing concern amongst marginalised communities about the slow pace of service delivery, and an economic crisis starting to impact on jobs in South Africa.

The one point on which the DA and COPE could potentially have made substantial inroads was in their criticism of the ANC’s policy of ‘deployment’, through which the ANC deploys loyal cadres to key positions in state and semi-state institutions (but they failed to capitalise on this point). The policy of deployment essentially means that people are appointed to key institutions as a result of political largesse, rather than on the basis of competency for the position. We have seen, on many occasions, people being fired or resigning from such positions as a result of incompetence or mismanagement, (and sometimes being paid out large sums to go quietly), when they should probably never have been appointed in the first place. This has led to major problems in key institutions such as the SABC and SAA, and also meant that the in fighting within the ANC spilled over into these bodies as well.

The Independent Electoral Commission has somehow stood above such challenges, with the result that the vast majority of South Africans have great confidence in the electoral process. It is a substantial democratic achievement to have reached the point where the main difficulties with these elections have related to the defacing of some posters on lampposts – “Election marred by disfiguring of Jacob Zuma poster by COPE supporter on Jan Smuts Avenue”.

So the ANC seems likely to win by a substantial majority (of course, I may be wrong!) How is this? The fact is that the ANC is still the party trusted by the majority of South Africans as the one party willing and able to work for the rights of poor and marginalised people in South Africa. It may also be the only political party that can contain both the hopes and the frustrations of the majority of the people, as we work as a country to improve the lives and living conditions of all. The ANC was also the party that brought liberation and hope to South Africa.

It is also the case that no other political party is currently able to win the trust and faith of the people, despite all the failings of the ANC. The ANC, together with alliance partners, COSATU and the SACP, is still a broad church, bigger than Jacob Zuma, within which many perspectives are accommodated, and complete dominance of any one grouping or faction over the others would probably lead to a split – and a much more significant one than that represented by the COPE splinter. My sense is that such a split, if and when it comes, will be defined along policy lines, rather than as a breaking away of personalities.

For now, unless the different opposition groupings, and especially COPE and the DA, can come together to define an alternative policy framework for the country as a whole, the ANC is likely to remain the largest and most dominant party for some time to come.

So what does this mean for trust in our body politic? For now, the majority of people are prepared to trust the ANC with the governance of the country. Other parties are trusted to the extent that they seem to respond to the hopes and fears of particular groupings only. The opposition parties need to articulate a forward-looking agenda that the South African people ‘as a whole’ can identify with, and which offers hope, and enables people to trust them. This will also mean finding new and trustworthy leaders who can articulate that agenda. Sadly, we are a long way from that at the moment.

With the ANC firmly in control of political institutions, the role of civil society, the media and other voices in society will be to ensure accountability on the part of government and parliament, and work for sound governance and competence in the management of public and private institutions.

Reasons to be cheerful!

One of the people who commented on my last post criticised my posting for lacking in insight and another assumed that I need some kind of political education. While I do not intend to defend myself on either charge, and being quite conscious that I do not pretend to be any kind of political analyst, I do feel it useful to perhaps explain the context in which I will on occasion share my perspectives on our political situation – apart from the fact that anyone has a right to comment on politics even if not a political commentator or analyst (or Helen Zille supporter!)

My purpose in writing my last posting was really to illustrate some of the ways in which politicians sometimes betray the trust of the electorate – by using trite slogans, trying to be on more than one electoral list at the same time, projecting image above policy, pretending to be what you are not etc.

And the reason the issue of trust in politicians is important, and related to this blog, is that trust in politicians is an aspect of social capital. Inasmuch as politicians set themselves up to be political leaders, trust in politicians goes to the core of how we see ourselves as a nation and what we want to become. In seeking our trust, and asking for our votes, politicians should be modelling and representing the social capital we need to create and invest in. Trust is therefore a vertical as well as a horizontal phenomenon, existing - or not existing – between people in communities and networks as well as between those who govern and aspire to govern, and those who are governed. (To read more about political capital, see Kenneth Newton's article 'Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy').

A healthy democracy is one in which significant numbers of people vote, and do so to make real choices about politics – policies and leadership. And to facilitate this process we need political parties and political leaders that are able to articulate a clear national vision and alternative choices that appeal to the people of our country on the basis of policies that rise above racial, tribal or sectarian divisions of the past.

Some further feedback I received on my previous posting is that I was surprisingly cynical and unappreciative! So I thought I would take up the challenge and point out various aspects that I do appreciate about the way the parties have conducted their election campaigns.

I am impressed with the moderation (in style and content) displayed by Jacob Zuma. He has been measured and calm in his rhetoric, and I believe this has helped to create a more peaceful atmosphere – important in the light of political tensions in KwaZulu Natal and the arrival of COPE on the political scene.

I am impressed by the DA’s commitment to working in coalition – this bodes well for the development of opposition politics in South Africa.

I guess I am impressed by the fact that COPE has just arrived on the political scene and has managed to conduct some kind of national campaign within a few short months.

I believe that the PAC has done well to come through its recent troubles and is presenting itself in a more coherent fashion to try and win votes.

The Independent Democrats have run a quite focused campaign and have also managed to project themselves as being slightly more than just a political machine for Patricia De Lille.

The ‘A’ party has done well to arrive on the political scene as a smart combination of smaller and minority parties that by themselves would not have been able to afford the deposit to run on the national list.

Well let me stop lest I am next accused of damning with faint praise! Considering that our democracy in South Africa is still less than 6,000 days old, and despite many reasons to be cynical or despairing, I believe that there are also quite a few positive signs that we are a steadily maturing political democracy.