Opposition politics in South Africa

The election has been something of a distraction from day-to-day things, so this will be my last posting on politics for a while. My continuing interest is the process of realignment of opposition politics and a hope that the process will move in such a way that leads us towards a political opposition that can pose a credible alternative to the ANC for significant numbers of our people – not because I believe that the ANC currently has unacceptable policies, but more because a democracy generally depends on people have choices between different political groupings that they can trust to represent their interests and to govern the country.

So, in this context, what do the results of last week’s elections mean for this realignment process?

The ANC remains the largest party, with more or less two thirds of the popular vote -having probably lost some votes to COPE and the DA and won some from the IFP and maybe some other smaller parties (the ANC won over 1m additional votes in KwaZulu Natal this time round – a major achievement).

The DA, having around 16% of the vote, remains the ‘official’ (largest) opposition party. They are still a long way from posing any real threat to the ANC at a national level – probably for at least the next 12 years – unless there is some radical realignment of the opposition parties. The DA won the Western Cape, and is the main opposition party in only 2 other provinces (Mpumalanga and Gauteng).

Interestingly, the DA’s election analysis document (available on their website, and which is a wonderful example of how to put a positive spin on a situation whilst ignoring some hard realities!) describes the DA as the “fastest growing” party in both the Free State and the Eastern Cape, despite the fact that COPE came from nowhere and leapfrogged above the DA in numbers of votes in both provinces!

COPE won around 7.5% of the national vote, so is well behind the DA overall, but oddly is now the 2nd largest party in 5 provinces (Northern Cape, North West, Limpopo, Free State and Eastern Cape) and so could also claim some recognition as a significant national opposition party.

Smaller parties – especially the Independent Democrats (ID), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and others, did less well and may be thinking about their political futures. Patricia de Lille of the ID has hinted that she may be thinking about what to do and that opposition parties should consider getting together.

If the smaller parties decide to roll up their tents and find a new political home, I would imagine that the ID and UDM and the remnants of the PAC would be more likely to move towards COPE than the DA – potentially, on 2009 voting figures, bringing COPE closer to the DA…

The Freedom Front Plus would probably be more likely to move towards the DA. It is not clear where the IFP votes would go but if COPE managed to win most of them we could have this scenario:

COPE (7.42%) + ID (0.92%) + UDM (0.85%) + ‘PAC’ (0.7%) + IFP (4.55%) = 14.45%

DA (16.66%) + FF+ (0.83%) + UCDP (0.37%) + MF (0.25%) = maybe 18%

In this scenario, the DA and COPE face a continuing battle for the role of official opposition, with the DA having to constantly look over its shoulder. The ANC would continue to win elections, with still no real alternative emerging. However if we put the realigned DA and COPE percentages together we go over 30% (maybe 32% on 2009 percentages).

Assuming that the ANC could struggle to retain 66% of the votes in the next elections, (and of course assuming that it stays together as a single party), we can then see the potential of a reorganised single opposition party going well over 35% in the 2014 election, and being able to position itself as an alternative government by 2019.

Do any of the opposition parties have the foresight to see this scenario, and the courage to take the first steps or make the first moves? My sense is that fortune will favour the brave.

Election over - what next?

What a disappointing election campaign. I have been looking hard for interesting or even exciting things to write about, from an appreciative perspective!

There have been some positive aspects, some mentioned in my previous posting. It was good that COPE managed in the end to publish an election manifesto – find a link to it on their website. And good that the franchise was extended, as a result of a court case, to South Africans temporarily overseas – although more will need to be done to make it possible for South Africans living away from capital cities, perhaps by allowing an extended postal voting arrangement.

I cannot help but feel hugely disappointed by the opposition parties. While none of them excite me particularly, they (COPE and the DA in particular) had a real opportunity to establish themselves as real opposition parties that showed the potential to really contest for government at some point in the future. All was in their favour – widespread concern about a Zuma Presidency, infighting within the ANC leading to the splintering away of COPE, growing concern amongst marginalised communities about the slow pace of service delivery, and an economic crisis starting to impact on jobs in South Africa.

The one point on which the DA and COPE could potentially have made substantial inroads was in their criticism of the ANC’s policy of ‘deployment’, through which the ANC deploys loyal cadres to key positions in state and semi-state institutions (but they failed to capitalise on this point). The policy of deployment essentially means that people are appointed to key institutions as a result of political largesse, rather than on the basis of competency for the position. We have seen, on many occasions, people being fired or resigning from such positions as a result of incompetence or mismanagement, (and sometimes being paid out large sums to go quietly), when they should probably never have been appointed in the first place. This has led to major problems in key institutions such as the SABC and SAA, and also meant that the in fighting within the ANC spilled over into these bodies as well.

The Independent Electoral Commission has somehow stood above such challenges, with the result that the vast majority of South Africans have great confidence in the electoral process. It is a substantial democratic achievement to have reached the point where the main difficulties with these elections have related to the defacing of some posters on lampposts – “Election marred by disfiguring of Jacob Zuma poster by COPE supporter on Jan Smuts Avenue”.

So the ANC seems likely to win by a substantial majority (of course, I may be wrong!) How is this? The fact is that the ANC is still the party trusted by the majority of South Africans as the one party willing and able to work for the rights of poor and marginalised people in South Africa. It may also be the only political party that can contain both the hopes and the frustrations of the majority of the people, as we work as a country to improve the lives and living conditions of all. The ANC was also the party that brought liberation and hope to South Africa.

It is also the case that no other political party is currently able to win the trust and faith of the people, despite all the failings of the ANC. The ANC, together with alliance partners, COSATU and the SACP, is still a broad church, bigger than Jacob Zuma, within which many perspectives are accommodated, and complete dominance of any one grouping or faction over the others would probably lead to a split – and a much more significant one than that represented by the COPE splinter. My sense is that such a split, if and when it comes, will be defined along policy lines, rather than as a breaking away of personalities.

For now, unless the different opposition groupings, and especially COPE and the DA, can come together to define an alternative policy framework for the country as a whole, the ANC is likely to remain the largest and most dominant party for some time to come.

So what does this mean for trust in our body politic? For now, the majority of people are prepared to trust the ANC with the governance of the country. Other parties are trusted to the extent that they seem to respond to the hopes and fears of particular groupings only. The opposition parties need to articulate a forward-looking agenda that the South African people ‘as a whole’ can identify with, and which offers hope, and enables people to trust them. This will also mean finding new and trustworthy leaders who can articulate that agenda. Sadly, we are a long way from that at the moment.

With the ANC firmly in control of political institutions, the role of civil society, the media and other voices in society will be to ensure accountability on the part of government and parliament, and work for sound governance and competence in the management of public and private institutions.