No leaflet from any political party through my letter box as yet. No phone call, SMS, or e-mail from anyone. Some posters on lampposts, but none from COPE. The DA has pictures of Helen Zille, and some other people (but no idea who). The Freedom Front Plus has posters of happy white people, which at least makes clear who they are targeting. The ANC says that “together we can do more”, which is hardly inspiring.
COPE has marginalised itself by failing to produce anything substantial by way of policy. Some brief lines do now appear on their website. The 2 most recent ANC defectors who joined COPE (Sello Moloto and Dennis Bloem) between them made a farce of the whole process – Dennis Bloem by managing to appear on both the ANC and the COPE lists simultaneously (to appear on a list you have to sign nomination papers) and Sello Moloto by resigning as Limpopo Premier on joining COPE, but not quickly enough to avoid being COPE’s first, possibly last, and undoubtedly shortest-lived Provincial Premier for a few hours last week before the ANC hastily replaced him with an acting Premier (Cassel Mathale). Interestingly the Who's Who profile of Moloto shows that he was also a member of the South African Communist Party - I wonder if he also remembered to resign from the SACP before joining COPE?
The DA has all the colours of the South African flag incorporated into its new logo (er, except, er… black). Party leader Helen Zille effectively gave it up to the ANC when she descended into a name-calling tit-for-tat with ANC Youth Leaguer Julius Malema, only for President Motlanthe to chide Malema for being an unruly child, leaving Zille with lots of egg on her face and looking distinctly un-Presidential. In one well swoop, by calling Malema an uncircumcised youth, she probably alienated some hundreds of thousands of potential DA voters. Recognising the value of these type of silly exchanges, Malema on Saturday reportedly perpetuated the exchanges by referring to Helen Zille as a "toddler".Helen Zille is now reduced to attacking COPE, saying that a vote for COPE is effectively voting for the ANC. I don’t quite get that, but it shows that the main concern of the DA is that they will lose support to COPE, which at least managed to remember to have some black in its logo.
So the likelihood is that the election will confirmthat the COPE breakaway does not represent a major
split within the ANC – more just another stage in the
continuing realignment of opposition parties.
Posts
4 comments:
Not a good idea to dabble in things you clearly have no idea about. The paucity of insight in this piece is astounding!
You clearly know little about politics my friend. Let me educate you:
There are three key facts which must mark the beginning of any analysis.
Firstly, when the ANC was in full cry (1999; 2004) they (in its original, united format) were receiving upper 60's in support. A lot has happened since then and the country has changed markedly. But to keep it simple, lets say that ANC and COPE support, when added together, should come to between 70-75%. In other words, the broad ANC is dominant as it always was.
The second indisputable fact is one that is really picked up on by the media. But it is absilutely crucial nonetheless. Jacob Zuma won at Polokwane - but only with 59% of the vote. A full 40% of the ANC did not vote for him (in a secret ballot). This is not an opinion poll. Nor was it a vote of the upper, ruling elite. It is the best measure of grass-roots ANC support for the two factions.
Simple Maths tells us that 60% of 70% is equal to 42%. I'm not asking for miracles - I'm not even asking for a change in the reality of the political situation. In the 2009 general elections, if SA voters vote the way they did in 2004, and if ANC supporters vote the way they did at Polokwane, Zuma's ANC will fall well short of the 50% needed to rule the country without a coalition partner.
This brings me on to my third and final point - one that is equally important. Quite simply: The ANC has no friends. The magic of Mandela is gone. Faith in the Mbeki Project has evaporated. Zuma will enjoy no honeymoon. A coalition with the DA is unthinkable. The ID, once partners in 2004 and 2006, has - with the coloured vote - turned sharply into opposition. Julius Malema has insulted Buthelezi's wife (and every other party for that matter). The ACDP is fed up - as is just about everyone else - the PAC, UDM, UCDP... quite simply the ANC will not find a coalition partner anywhere.
an uncircumcized youth - very funny. When I first heard this I was happy that someone put Malema in his place. As a young black women in the New Sa how could I have a man like Zuma and his Malema get my vote? I say its a womens' turn, even a tough one like Zille will do a better job than Zuma and his crooks.
Mark,
I see you've also received an education on the state of South African politics by an anonymous probably DA supporter.
Heaven forbid that someone have a different opinion.
The DA's carrying on only makes ANC support grow.
If the ANC gets more than 67% of the vote, I will blame the DA!
Post a Comment