Low Trust Globalisation

I have indulged myself somewhat in recent posts with my thoughts on the Open Doors and Flags scenarios developed by the Shell scenarios team in 2005, in which they explore possible future worlds in 2025.

To complete the picture, the third scenario they imagine is ‘Low Trust Globalisation’. This scenario is perhaps closer to a representation of the world as it is today, and less idealistic than ‘Open Doors’ and less fatalistic than ‘Flags’.

These 3 Shell scenarios were developed through a process of exploring the results of trade-offs and choices that can be made in managing the interplay between powerful forces that exist in the global business environment. The forces derive from a drive for efficiency and the power of the market, the need for security (in the broadest sense) and the consequent push for coercion and regulation, and the push for social cohesion that arises from the human need for community.

So, while the Shell team emphasises that these three forces will continue to shape our world for the next number of years, it is the business choices and political trade-offs that will impact on the balance of these forces and lead to the scenario alternatives. So ‘Flags’ represents a world where the balance is found between the needs of security and community, with free markets playing a less significant (but not absent) role. ‘Open Doors’ emphasises the balance between community (social cohesion) and the market, with less concern about security and higher levels of regulation. And the ‘Low Trust Globalisation’ scenario is a world that finds itself concerned primarily with market efficiency and security, and in which community power and the drive for social cohesion struggle to make as big an impact.

The current global economic ‘crisis’ has had interesting consequences, with western ‘capitalist’ governments effectively nationalising banks and propping up the motor industry. It was Karl Marx of course who in the Communist Party Manifesto called for the nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy. Come back you Reds – all is forgiven!

And it seems to be agreed, amongst economic commentators in the Western media, that much tighter regulation is needed of the banking system and the behaviour of senior banking, auditing and other financial directors and CEOs.

If this represents a fundamental shift away from the values of the market, it could lead us towards the ‘Flags' scenario, in which national interests take precedence over the globalisation trends of the last 30 years. My sense, however, especially after following what has been happening in Davos, is that the leading economic powers will seek to re-establish the power of the markets as drivers of economic growth and that Western governments will have little appetite for running banks for very long, even if new regulatory systems are negotiated and put in place.

The prime challenge facing those who see the need for a more environmentally and ecologically sustainable world system at peace with itself then remains. As the forces of globalisation reassert themselves, how can companies, organisations, communities and governments, especially those in the developing world, create innovative, practical and dynamic products, services and initiatives that stimulate more sustainable ways of living and lift people out of poverty?

We certainly live in interesting times, and the world and South Africa seem to change markedly even in the time between my blogposts! But these times are times of great opportunity and optimism, even as we face deep and sustained crises of one kind or another. Seamus Heaney, one of Ireland’s leading poets, wrote of the time when ‘hope and history rhyme’:

from The Cure at Troy

Human beings suffer,
they torture one another,
they get hurt and get hard.
No poem or play or song
can fully right a wrong
inflicted or endured.

The innocent in gaols
beat on their bars together.
A hunger-striker's father
stands in the graveyard dumb.
The police widow in veils
faints at the funeral home.

History says, Don't hope
on this side of the grave.
But then, once in a lifetime
the longed for tidal wave
of justice can rise up,
and hope and history rhyme.

So hope for a great sea-change
on the far side of revenge.
Believe that a further shore
is reachable from here.
Believe in miracles
and cures and healing wells.

Call the miracle self-healing:
The utter self-revealing
double-take of feeling.
If there's fire on the mountain
Or lightning and storm
And a god speaks from the sky

That means someone is hearing
the outcry and the birth-cry
of new life at its term.

~ Seamus Heaney ~