Open Doors

As we move into 2009 should we be optimistic or pessimistic? There are plenty of reasons for both perspectives, in South Africa and elsewhere. The ‘credit crunch’ and associated market impact has left millions of middle class people around the world feeling anxious and uncertain, not least about their savings and investments for retirement years. Those millions of poor around the world, who have little to start with, are less vulnerable to the immediate impact, but are likely to see a slow-down in whatever development assistance may have reached their communities.

Conflict, in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere continues to stand in the way of prospects for democracy and development and in many ways appears to become more intractable. We face significant environmental and security challenges globally, and HIV and AIDS, TB and other diseases ravage families and communities particularly in southern Africa.

But there are signs of hope. We have a new President in the US who seems committed to multilateralism, signalling a possible break from the policies of George W Bush (now the most disliked US President in American history). A withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and the closing of Guantanamo Bay would be a good start.

Zimbabwe is still in crisis, but is probably moving into the end-game phase, with Mugabe slowly losing his grip on power and signs of disaffection within the military and his own Zanu-PF party.

In South Africa, we have a new political party (the Congress of the People) that, while it still has to articulate some policy directions that differentiate it from the ANC, offers hope that a realignment of the opposition can offer prospects of a credible alternative government in the future. We have a general election in 2009 from which a changed political landscape will emerge, and while the ANC will likely be the winners, we will also see a more ‘normal’ political dispensation coming about in which people cast their votes less along historically determined racial lines of allegiance, and more to reflect real political choices.

For now, the government led by Motlanthe, has shown prudence and caution in managing the country and the economy. The Minister of Health, Barbara Hogan, has won support from civil society and the media for her commitment to seriously addressing HIV and AIDS and moving away from the denialism of Thabo Mbeki and her predecessor.

But these are really just straws in the wind! In 2005, Shell produced a set of Global Scenarios for the year 2025, continuing a 30-year process of developing future scenarios for the global and business environment. The 2025 scenarios were developed as a consequence of changed thinking on global questions following 9/11.

Exploring issues of market efficiency (or lack thereof), social cohesion or disconnects, and global security (defined broadly to include terrorism, poverty, environmental degradation etc), and the trade-offs that will have to be made as the world grapples with these issues, the Shell scenario team identified 3 possible scenarios: Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors and Flags.

Low Trust Globalisation is characterised by legalism, increasing regulation, intrusive controls and oversight – a kind of ‘big brother’ scenario. Open Doors envisages increasing cross-border integration, voluntary regulation, a growth in public-private partnerships, and global networks addressing policy issues. Flags offers a retreat into nationalism and ‘laagers’, conflict over values, ideology and religion, and a break on globalisation.

These scenarios are offered as likely trends in a global ‘jet stream’, that recognises the existence of localised ‘weather systems’ in which particular parts of the world may gravitate more to one scenario than another, and which also recognises the potential for different ‘navigation’ strategies.

The scenario team worked with economic forecasting units in Oxford and Washington to project economic growth rates under each scenario. The Open Doors scenario provides the highest likely growth rate of 3.8%, leading to 40% higher levels of economic prosperity under this scenario than in Flags, and 17% higher than suggested by Low Trust Globalisation. While these are not forecasts, they nonetheless provide food for thought and a degree of incentive for anyone concerned with creating a better world.

The Shell Scenarios recognise the particular challenges in Africa as well as the opportunities that exist here. Institution building is identified as a critical variable for Africa if resources are to be effectively harnessed to development. This means building government capacity and accountability, improving donor-recipient engagement, and improving the prospects for public-private partnerships that can contribute to development.