Picture: Gisele Wulfsohn, Alexandra, 27th April 1994
Basically the ANC has won the election,
albeit with a slightly reduced overall percentage vote. It is still unassailable as the majority
party and will remain so until there is a fundamental realignment and reorganization
of the opposition parties. While the DA
states that it is working for such a realignment, the option has been on the
table since 2009 and the DA has failed spectacularly to achieve this so far –
the very recent failed merger with Agang being the obvious illustration.
At a time when the ANC has potentially been
vulnerable (Marikana, Nkandla, EFF etc) the opposition has totally failed to
provide any kind of alternative vision for the country that can capture the
imagination of the population has a whole.
Ultimately this is a failure of leadership – the country has been failed
by leaders of all parties.
The achievement of the (Economic Freedom Fighters) EFF in getting 6%+
of the national vote is also a reflection of leadership failures in the ANC and
the DA. Julius Malema is a dangerous
populist. While some EFF leaders have
spouted left-wing rhetoric to appeal to the masses the party is by no means a
socialist one. Their ‘economic policies’
are designed to win broad support, with big increases in social grants etc and
no articulation of how they will be funded or how the economy can be stimulated
to grow so as to meet the needs of a growing population. And Malema’s flirtations with reintroducing
the death penalty and destroying the e-Toll gantries betray his populist
nature. It will be interesting to see,
now that he has some kind of mandate, if he is the first to take the pneumatic
drill to the toll roads…
More importantly, we must be aware of the
dangers of populism, opportunism and nationalism – ultimately political concepts
that do no favours for poor, marginalized people anywhere in the world.
The final results show yet again (see my
earlier post after the previous national elections in 2009) that a coherent
unified opposition could potentially challenge for around 30% of available
votes (leaving aside the millions who are either not registered or do not
vote):
DA (22.23%) + IFP (2.4%) + NFP (1.57%) +
UDM (1.0%) + VF Plus (0.9%) + COPE (0.67%) + Agang (0.28%) = 29+%
I am assuming that this picture would not
include the EFF, ACDP or any of the former liberation parties (PAC or Azapo).
This would require a calculated strategy to
unify a range of smaller parties (and egos!) under a single banner, and the
DA-Agang debacle shows that this may not be easy, but would make coherent
political sense. The work to do this
should start now. If it can be done,
there is a possibility of creating an opposition that from a base of around 30%
support could potentially challenge the ANC in a real sense in the next
national elections.
Of course this would require some radical
shifts in thinking within the DA, which would have to really shake off its
image as a white middle-class party, adopt some radical new policies and
promote real transformation within its leadership. It would need particularly to develop
economic and social policies (and an associated rhetoric) that have broad
appeal to ‘the ordinary South African’ (if this is still possible with the DA’s
underlying neo-liberal agenda).
This kind of transformation, coupled with
the populist critique from the EFF (now in Parliament), could also force some
new thinking within the ANC about what kind of leadership it needs if it is to
remain relevant in South Africa in the next 5-10 years.
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