The changing world of work

Here is a link to a very interesting article on the changing nature of work.  I am intrigued by what this means in terms of our understanding of what organisations are, how they will be structured and designed, and what people will be doing with their time in the next 30 years.

The article reminds me of my earlier posting from last year (No people - just screens, terminals and handsets...)

South Africa's elections 2014 - what next?

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Picture: Gisele Wulfsohn, Alexandra, 27th April 1994

Basically the ANC has won the election, albeit with a slightly reduced overall percentage vote.  It is still unassailable as the majority party and will remain so until there is a fundamental realignment and reorganization of the opposition parties.  While the DA states that it is working for such a realignment, the option has been on the table since 2009 and the DA has failed spectacularly to achieve this so far – the very recent failed merger with Agang being the obvious illustration.

At a time when the ANC has potentially been vulnerable (Marikana, Nkandla, EFF etc) the opposition has totally failed to provide any kind of alternative vision for the country that can capture the imagination of the population has a whole.  Ultimately this is a failure of leadership – the country has been failed by leaders of all parties.

The achievement of the (Economic Freedom Fighters) EFF in getting 6%+ of the national vote is also a reflection of leadership failures in the ANC and the DA.  Julius Malema is a dangerous populist.  While some EFF leaders have spouted left-wing rhetoric to appeal to the masses the party is by no means a socialist one.  Their ‘economic policies’ are designed to win broad support, with big increases in social grants etc and no articulation of how they will be funded or how the economy can be stimulated to grow so as to meet the needs of a growing population.  And Malema’s flirtations with reintroducing the death penalty and destroying the e-Toll gantries betray his populist nature.  It will be interesting to see, now that he has some kind of mandate, if he is the first to take the pneumatic drill to the toll roads…

More importantly, we must be aware of the dangers of populism, opportunism and nationalism – ultimately political concepts that do no favours for poor, marginalized people anywhere in the world.

The final results show yet again (see my earlier post after the previous national elections in 2009) that a coherent unified opposition could potentially challenge for around 30% of available votes (leaving aside the millions who are either not registered or do not vote):

DA (22.23%) + IFP (2.4%) + NFP (1.57%) + UDM (1.0%) + VF Plus (0.9%) + COPE (0.67%) + Agang (0.28%) = 29+%

I am assuming that this picture would not include the EFF, ACDP or any of the former liberation parties (PAC or Azapo).

This would require a calculated strategy to unify a range of smaller parties (and egos!) under a single banner, and the DA-Agang debacle shows that this may not be easy, but would make coherent political sense.  The work to do this should start now.  If it can be done, there is a possibility of creating an opposition that from a base of around 30% support could potentially challenge the ANC in a real sense in the next national elections.

Of course this would require some radical shifts in thinking within the DA, which would have to really shake off its image as a white middle-class party, adopt some radical new policies and promote real transformation within its leadership.  It would need particularly to develop economic and social policies (and an associated rhetoric) that have broad appeal to ‘the ordinary South African’ (if this is still possible with the DA’s underlying neo-liberal agenda).

This kind of transformation, coupled with the populist critique from the EFF (now in Parliament), could also force some new thinking within the ANC about what kind of leadership it needs if it is to remain relevant in South Africa in the next 5-10 years.

Oscar Pistorius and the path to redemption

Oscar Pistorius killed his girlfriend. Whether by accident or thinking it was someone else, or deliberately intending to kill her, we do not know. The judge will decide in due course. Only he knows exactly what happened – the whole truth. This truth has not emerged in the trial, and did not appear to emerge during his testimony either. During his testimony, Oscar gave various explanations for how things were that night as he was able or willing to put on the court record, and where other evidence seemed at contradiction or variance with his story he suggested that evidence had been fabricated, or that (many) other people had lied, or that he did not understand how things could be (eg. how the gun in the restaurant had fired itself). 

Our fascination with the trial is partly because many of us suspect strongly that he may actually have intended to shoot Reeva Steenkamp, suspect that he is not telling the full truth at the moment, and are intrigued as to how his defence will unfold when there are so many unanswered questions and contradictions in his version. He will be found guilty of some offence, as he has admitted shooting Reeva, even if acquitted of murder. He may be convicted on other charges as well. All will emerge in due course. 

It seems therefore that, barring some very strange new developments, Oscar Pistorius will be sent to prison - and possibly for some time. He is still a young man, and may have some kind of further life as a free man in his middle age. Innocent or guilty of murder, he has an opportunity to redeem himself in the public eye and lay the basis of some degree of public acceptance for the future. I suggest that this is only possible if he uses the opportunity of his trial to tell the truth about what happened, and in a convincing way. 

Can he redeem himself? This is Oscar’s big question. Can he find it in himself to go into what will seem to him to be a very dark place, and stand up in court to tell the whole truth. It will involve more tears and retching – no doubt. But if he were to stand up, acknowledge the truth and start to tell the whole story of himself (and his fascination with guns, difficulties with relationships etc), his relationship with Reeva, (and what went wrong), and what exactly happened that night, then I for one would be willing to give him the benefit of some doubt and accept that for the first time he was trying to take responsibility. It might lead to his conviction on the murder charge, but he is going down anyway. And he will lay the basis for his eventual redemption in the world, and the opportunity for him to move forward as a human being, on the basis that the truth can set us free.

Building Peace

The Institute for Economics and Peace last year published a report (Pillars of Peace Report), which is based on empirical research and identifies 8 key factors that underpin peaceful societies.  It speaks for itself.