South Africa's elections 2014 - what next?

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Picture: Gisele Wulfsohn, Alexandra, 27th April 1994

Basically the ANC has won the election, albeit with a slightly reduced overall percentage vote.  It is still unassailable as the majority party and will remain so until there is a fundamental realignment and reorganization of the opposition parties.  While the DA states that it is working for such a realignment, the option has been on the table since 2009 and the DA has failed spectacularly to achieve this so far – the very recent failed merger with Agang being the obvious illustration.

At a time when the ANC has potentially been vulnerable (Marikana, Nkandla, EFF etc) the opposition has totally failed to provide any kind of alternative vision for the country that can capture the imagination of the population has a whole.  Ultimately this is a failure of leadership – the country has been failed by leaders of all parties.

The achievement of the (Economic Freedom Fighters) EFF in getting 6%+ of the national vote is also a reflection of leadership failures in the ANC and the DA.  Julius Malema is a dangerous populist.  While some EFF leaders have spouted left-wing rhetoric to appeal to the masses the party is by no means a socialist one.  Their ‘economic policies’ are designed to win broad support, with big increases in social grants etc and no articulation of how they will be funded or how the economy can be stimulated to grow so as to meet the needs of a growing population.  And Malema’s flirtations with reintroducing the death penalty and destroying the e-Toll gantries betray his populist nature.  It will be interesting to see, now that he has some kind of mandate, if he is the first to take the pneumatic drill to the toll roads…

More importantly, we must be aware of the dangers of populism, opportunism and nationalism – ultimately political concepts that do no favours for poor, marginalized people anywhere in the world.

The final results show yet again (see my earlier post after the previous national elections in 2009) that a coherent unified opposition could potentially challenge for around 30% of available votes (leaving aside the millions who are either not registered or do not vote):

DA (22.23%) + IFP (2.4%) + NFP (1.57%) + UDM (1.0%) + VF Plus (0.9%) + COPE (0.67%) + Agang (0.28%) = 29+%

I am assuming that this picture would not include the EFF, ACDP or any of the former liberation parties (PAC or Azapo).

This would require a calculated strategy to unify a range of smaller parties (and egos!) under a single banner, and the DA-Agang debacle shows that this may not be easy, but would make coherent political sense.  The work to do this should start now.  If it can be done, there is a possibility of creating an opposition that from a base of around 30% support could potentially challenge the ANC in a real sense in the next national elections.

Of course this would require some radical shifts in thinking within the DA, which would have to really shake off its image as a white middle-class party, adopt some radical new policies and promote real transformation within its leadership.  It would need particularly to develop economic and social policies (and an associated rhetoric) that have broad appeal to ‘the ordinary South African’ (if this is still possible with the DA’s underlying neo-liberal agenda).

This kind of transformation, coupled with the populist critique from the EFF (now in Parliament), could also force some new thinking within the ANC about what kind of leadership it needs if it is to remain relevant in South Africa in the next 5-10 years.

Oscar Pistorius and the path to redemption

Oscar Pistorius killed his girlfriend. Whether by accident or thinking it was someone else, or deliberately intending to kill her, we do not know. The judge will decide in due course. Only he knows exactly what happened – the whole truth. This truth has not emerged in the trial, and did not appear to emerge during his testimony either. During his testimony, Oscar gave various explanations for how things were that night as he was able or willing to put on the court record, and where other evidence seemed at contradiction or variance with his story he suggested that evidence had been fabricated, or that (many) other people had lied, or that he did not understand how things could be (eg. how the gun in the restaurant had fired itself). 

Our fascination with the trial is partly because many of us suspect strongly that he may actually have intended to shoot Reeva Steenkamp, suspect that he is not telling the full truth at the moment, and are intrigued as to how his defence will unfold when there are so many unanswered questions and contradictions in his version. He will be found guilty of some offence, as he has admitted shooting Reeva, even if acquitted of murder. He may be convicted on other charges as well. All will emerge in due course. 

It seems therefore that, barring some very strange new developments, Oscar Pistorius will be sent to prison - and possibly for some time. He is still a young man, and may have some kind of further life as a free man in his middle age. Innocent or guilty of murder, he has an opportunity to redeem himself in the public eye and lay the basis of some degree of public acceptance for the future. I suggest that this is only possible if he uses the opportunity of his trial to tell the truth about what happened, and in a convincing way. 

Can he redeem himself? This is Oscar’s big question. Can he find it in himself to go into what will seem to him to be a very dark place, and stand up in court to tell the whole truth. It will involve more tears and retching – no doubt. But if he were to stand up, acknowledge the truth and start to tell the whole story of himself (and his fascination with guns, difficulties with relationships etc), his relationship with Reeva, (and what went wrong), and what exactly happened that night, then I for one would be willing to give him the benefit of some doubt and accept that for the first time he was trying to take responsibility. It might lead to his conviction on the murder charge, but he is going down anyway. And he will lay the basis for his eventual redemption in the world, and the opportunity for him to move forward as a human being, on the basis that the truth can set us free.

Building Peace

The Institute for Economics and Peace last year published a report (Pillars of Peace Report), which is based on empirical research and identifies 8 key factors that underpin peaceful societies.  It speaks for itself.

The DA, fighting apartheid, and reinventing history

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I have to admit to some astonishment at the ‘Know Your DA’ campaign, which suggests that the Democratic Alliance (DA) was somehow involved in the struggle against apartheid.

Maybe it is worth repeating that apartheid was declared by the United Nations to be a crime against humanity.  It was not just a mildly aberrant policy that could be changed as a result of white parliamentary opposition.

As such apartheid needed to be fought against.  And not just ‘fought’ by way of a few newspaper articles and some opposing voices raised in the illegitimate parliament of the time, but fought by way of an armed struggle and international isolation and sanctions.

It should not be necessary to repeat what this struggle involved and the huge sacrifices made by people across South Africa.  Many thousands of people were forced into exile and many were away from their homes and families for decades, while some never came home.  Hundreds of others were imprisoned, again many for decades, tortured and killed in the apartheid goal.  Many were detained without trial and held in solitary confinement for long periods.

The ultimate price was paid by people of all races and backgrounds – Bram Fischer, Jeannette Schoon and her daughter Katryn, Ruth First, Solomon Mahlangu, Steve Biko, Neil Aggett, Andrew Zondo, Chris Hani, Phila Ndwandwe, David Webster, Hector Peterson, and many others, including of course people protesting against the pass laws at Sharpeville in 1960, and school children shot by police in 1976.

Many thousands more were forcibly removed from their homes and dumped in so-called homelands – something I covered in an earlier blogpost dealing with De Klerk’s amnesia.

Many organisations struggling against apartheid were banned, as were many individuals.  Generally, people who did not fit under the apartheid classification of ‘white’ were required to carry passes and suffer countless other indignities and bureaucratic abuses simply on the basis of their skin colour.

Now the DA of course was not in existence during the apartheid years.  But it’s ‘predecessor’ organisations were.  Especially the Progressive Federal Party (PFP), with leaders such as Helen Suzman and Colin Elgin.  The PFP opposed apartheid policies in the white’s only parliament of the day, as did the earlier Liberal Party – although the Liberal Party took a decision to disband after the government passed a law disallowing parties from having a multiracial membership and it was not a predecessor of the PFP.  (although I am not sure if the SA Liberal Party actually ever had any MPs - someone may enlighten me...)

Of course, even earlier, the South African Labour Party under the leadership of Alex Hepple, who was an MP in the late 40s and 50s, also spoke out in Parliament against apartheid but failing to win significant white support closed down in the 1950s (and was also not in any sense a predecessor of the PFP).

The fact is that, while there were brave voices who used the white parliament to oppose apartheid, including Helen Suzman, these white voices were most solitary, and attempts to organise across colour lines and to make common cause with organisations like the ANC were mostly doomed. 

It was the fate of many white people and organisations that opposed apartheid to be harassed, imprisoned, banned or driven into exile.  On the liberal side - Peter Brown, of the Liberal Party, was detained for 98 days after the Sharpeville massacre and in 1964 was banned for 5 years under the Suppression of Communism Act.

Peaceful opposition to apartheid did not work and did not bring about the changes desired by the majority of people.  It was this realisation by the PAC and ANC in the late 50s and early 60s that led to the formation of the PAC’s military wing Poqo in 1960, the ANC’s military wing Umkhonto weSizwe in 1961, and Mandela going to Algeria for military training.

Mandela’s words from his speech in the dock:

"At the beginning of June 1961, after a long and anxious assessment of the South African situation, I, and some colleagues, came to the conclusion that as violence in this country was inevitable, it would be unrealistic and wrong for African leaders to continue preaching peace and non-violence at a time when the government met our peaceful demands with force.

This conclusion was not easily arrived at. It was only when all else had failed, when all channels of peaceful protest had been barred to us, that the decision was made to embark on violent forms of political struggle, and to form Umkhonto we Sizwe. We did so not because we desired such a course, but solely because the government had left us with no other choice. In the Manifesto of Umkhonto published on 16 December 1961 … we said:

'The time comes in the life of any nation when there remain only two choices – submit or fight. That time has now come to South Africa. We shall not submit and we have no choice but to hit back by all means in our power in defence of our people, our future, and our freedom.'”

The Progressive Federal Party was never banned and its members were not imprisoned or driven into exile.  Nor did the PFP align itself with the struggle as defined by Mandela.  While some of its members may have spoken out against aspects of apartheid, it was not involved in the broad sweep of extra-parliamentary struggle against apartheid, nor in the worldwide opposition to the South African regime, which was led by the ANC in exile and numerous banned underground organisations, trade unions and civic organisations inside South Africa.

This is not to minimise the significance of Helen Zille writing with Allistair Sparks about the death in detention of Steve Biko, or her membership of the Black Sash, or the individual efforts of a few other current DA members.

And it is important, now, that the DA plays its role as a leading opposition political party in a free and democratic South Africa.  As the realignment of opposition political formations continues, it may well be that the DA is able to make common cause with others, move beyond its white leadership and support base, and create new formations that will one day allow it to contest realistically for political leadership in this country on the basis of winning mass support.  It is worth recalling the worlds of Aime Cesaire:

“For it is not true that the work of man is finished,
That we have nothing more to do in the world,
That we are just parasites in this world,
That it is enough for us to walk in step with the world,
For the work of man is only just beginning and it remains to conquer all,
The violence entrenched in the recess of his passion,
And no race holds a monopoly of beauty, of intelligence, of strength, and,
There is a place for all at the Rendezvous of Victory.”

And so let us not pretend when it comes to South African history.  The struggle involved killings, torture, detentions, bannings, exile, military training in camps in the frontline states, parcel bombs, cross-border raids by the SADF, proxy wars fought in Mozambique and Angola, international sanctions and boycotts, and much more.  It was an armed struggle that required solidarity.  The DA’s predecessors in parliament were at best minor irritants to the apartheid government and were not involved.  So be it.  And now let us move forward, recognising that there is a place for all.

Penny Plowman's Qualitative Diary Method

My good friend Penny Plowman has undertaken qualitative research on the use of a diary methodology as one aspect of an integrated approach to organisational analysis and change. One of the beautiful things about this method is that it enables organisational participants to articulate truths about their organisation - truths that often otherwise remain hidden!

 

Interesting themes that have arisen for Penny in the course of her research include how diarists address issues of 'silencing' that happens in organisations, as well as how to address issues of inclusion and exclusion from centres of power (the 'boys' club'), and issues of emotion and feelings at work. An important question that arises with this type of organisational research is whether an organisation is ready to address issues that arise from the research. One of the exciting opportunities that arises from this type of research is the participative nature of the research - in that the diarists become 'co-researchers' into the life and culture of the organisation. You can listen to Penny's full University of Johannesburg presentation here.

No people - just screens, terminals and handsets…

On arriving recently at the new Terminal 5 at London’s Heathrow Airport I was struck by the car hire place - no people, just screens, terminals and handsets.

And in the parking terminal, machines that will tell you where you car is parked, just swipe your picking ticket or enter your car registration.

EU passport holders have since 2006 been issued with biometric passports with microchips in them, enabling them to pass seamlessly through automatic gates at border controls.

These new developments all reduce the need to employ people who do routine and repetitive jobs involving scanning, searching, paying and recording.

Supermarkets too are able to dispense with cashiers as customers scan items from their trolleys themselves into one device and pay (cash, credit or debit cards) into another:

And scanning devices are already being introduced in South African supermarkets – here is a ‘price-checking’ scanner at Checkers in Emmarentia:

Increasingly banks will exchange ‘brick and mortar’ branch networks for apps and cellphone-enabled technology as the safest and most secure customer offering, and banks of the future will look very different.

In case you think these developments are a long-way off for South Africa, here is the FNB branch in Hyde Park Shopping Centre:

I imagine that if banks and supermarkets in Europe are replacing recurrent employment costs with expenditure on technology then it is only going to be a short time before it happens here as well.  My local Checkers supermarket in Emmarentia employs probably well over 100 people, and we have no social contract in this country that says we need to preserve these jobs because of the social benefits of the incomes of the employees to them and their families, and of course our wider society.

These changes will not just impact on service sectors of the economy.  In mining, too, there are new developments that will enable remote-controlled mining, in which the rock face can be drilled by machines controlled from the surface:

  

What is driving these changes?

A nanometer is very small – a billionth of a meter long.  The world’s smallest microchip, unveiled in 2010, is just about nine nanometers in length.  Scientists are experimenting with ‘stacking’ microchips so as to be able to make faster and better cellphones (and military technology).  The problem is that they get very hot, so now they exploring how to use tiny amounts of fluid to keep them cool.

Microchips are unlikely to get much smaller, so now the innovation space is more concerned with how to expand their use.  More and more devices will become available with a multitude of uses that will change our lives.  And it is happening already.

We face the loss of perhaps hundreds of thousands of relatively low-paid, repetitive and relatively unskilled jobs as a result of new technologies in a short number of years – unless we can think very creatively and create a new social dispensation that has buy-in and active support from government, business and trade unions to address this question.  Currently there is little indication that this is understood by government and the trade union movement.

Government plans to create new jobs will be undermined by the impact of this technological transformation.  New jobs will have to be created in sectors that require skilled knowledge workers, in sectors such as tourism, beneficiation, information technology and so on.  Opportunities exist, arising from developments such as the Square Kilometer Array, chemical industry beneficiation etc, but these opportunities will critically require skilled people.  The loss of large numbers of relatively unskilled and low paid jobs cannot be countered easily and speedily by new job creation without a new and significant skills development plan coupled with an imaginative economic development strategy that has buy-in from all social partners.  The current National Development Plan may not be enough, especially in the context of our current conflictive political discourse.

Gisèle Wulfsohn Mentorship in Photography - update!

Since my last posting we have selected the first recipient of the Gisèle Wulfsohn Mentorship in Photography. Her name is Sydelle Willow Smith and she is originally from Cape Town.  The Mentorship Programme is managed by the Market Photo Workshop, and they announced the news here.

Sydelle's project is entitled 'Making Neighbourhood - Experiences of conviviality between African Nationals and local South Africans', and she describes her project as follows:

"Visually, immigrant stories in South Africa and in other parts of the world aremostly marked by daily experiences of discrimination and exclusion. I am investigating the other sideof the coin to understand the complexities of relationships formed across porous boundaries, negotiatedin the everyday. The xenophobic attacks of 2008 in South Africa revealed widespread localizedprejudices towards “foreign” Africans, sparked by a lack of resources and job insecurities that are stillprevalent today. Yet, it is important to focus on ways people live past these stereotypical prejudices. My anthropological training has informed my view of diasporic identities and the malleable nature ofculture and nationality...'Making Neighborhood' deals with convivial relationships between African nationals and SouthAfricans. I use the term conviviality to describe experiences of social inclusion and togetherness... The topic is complex, but an important one tobreak down and capture in the form of photographs."

Sydelle is tackling a critically important theme in South Africa - how we build a welcoming society in which people from different backgrounds and nataionalities can integrate effectively and with welcoming support to build their lives and make a contribution to building our new, peaceful democratic dispensation.  She will be producing a body of work over the coming year and we are looking forward to seeing how her project unfolds.

My intention is to sustain the Mentorship Programme for a number of years and to do this I am establishing a capital fund from which the annual costs can be met.  As part of this fundraising effort I have been running an online photographic auction through which I am selling prints donated by South African photographers who were part of Gisèle's professional and personal network.  You can view the prints that have been donated on my Facebook page.  Anyone who wishes to bid in this auction can contact me directly.  The auction closes on Friday 21st December.  

More details about Gisèle's life and the Mentorship Programme, as well as the auction, can be seen here in this Business Day article..