South Africa's elections 2014 - what next?

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Picture: Gisele Wulfsohn, Alexandra, 27th April 1994

Basically the ANC has won the election, albeit with a slightly reduced overall percentage vote.  It is still unassailable as the majority party and will remain so until there is a fundamental realignment and reorganization of the opposition parties.  While the DA states that it is working for such a realignment, the option has been on the table since 2009 and the DA has failed spectacularly to achieve this so far – the very recent failed merger with Agang being the obvious illustration.

At a time when the ANC has potentially been vulnerable (Marikana, Nkandla, EFF etc) the opposition has totally failed to provide any kind of alternative vision for the country that can capture the imagination of the population has a whole.  Ultimately this is a failure of leadership – the country has been failed by leaders of all parties.

The achievement of the (Economic Freedom Fighters) EFF in getting 6%+ of the national vote is also a reflection of leadership failures in the ANC and the DA.  Julius Malema is a dangerous populist.  While some EFF leaders have spouted left-wing rhetoric to appeal to the masses the party is by no means a socialist one.  Their ‘economic policies’ are designed to win broad support, with big increases in social grants etc and no articulation of how they will be funded or how the economy can be stimulated to grow so as to meet the needs of a growing population.  And Malema’s flirtations with reintroducing the death penalty and destroying the e-Toll gantries betray his populist nature.  It will be interesting to see, now that he has some kind of mandate, if he is the first to take the pneumatic drill to the toll roads…

More importantly, we must be aware of the dangers of populism, opportunism and nationalism – ultimately political concepts that do no favours for poor, marginalized people anywhere in the world.

The final results show yet again (see my earlier post after the previous national elections in 2009) that a coherent unified opposition could potentially challenge for around 30% of available votes (leaving aside the millions who are either not registered or do not vote):

DA (22.23%) + IFP (2.4%) + NFP (1.57%) + UDM (1.0%) + VF Plus (0.9%) + COPE (0.67%) + Agang (0.28%) = 29+%

I am assuming that this picture would not include the EFF, ACDP or any of the former liberation parties (PAC or Azapo).

This would require a calculated strategy to unify a range of smaller parties (and egos!) under a single banner, and the DA-Agang debacle shows that this may not be easy, but would make coherent political sense.  The work to do this should start now.  If it can be done, there is a possibility of creating an opposition that from a base of around 30% support could potentially challenge the ANC in a real sense in the next national elections.

Of course this would require some radical shifts in thinking within the DA, which would have to really shake off its image as a white middle-class party, adopt some radical new policies and promote real transformation within its leadership.  It would need particularly to develop economic and social policies (and an associated rhetoric) that have broad appeal to ‘the ordinary South African’ (if this is still possible with the DA’s underlying neo-liberal agenda).

This kind of transformation, coupled with the populist critique from the EFF (now in Parliament), could also force some new thinking within the ANC about what kind of leadership it needs if it is to remain relevant in South Africa in the next 5-10 years.

"Strategic Foresight" needed...

Here is a link to an interesting article by Adam Habib published in The Sunday Times that explores (in a deeper and more articulate fashion!) some of the some ideas from my previous posting...

Opposition politics in South Africa

The election has been something of a distraction from day-to-day things, so this will be my last posting on politics for a while. My continuing interest is the process of realignment of opposition politics and a hope that the process will move in such a way that leads us towards a political opposition that can pose a credible alternative to the ANC for significant numbers of our people – not because I believe that the ANC currently has unacceptable policies, but more because a democracy generally depends on people have choices between different political groupings that they can trust to represent their interests and to govern the country.

So, in this context, what do the results of last week’s elections mean for this realignment process?

The ANC remains the largest party, with more or less two thirds of the popular vote -having probably lost some votes to COPE and the DA and won some from the IFP and maybe some other smaller parties (the ANC won over 1m additional votes in KwaZulu Natal this time round – a major achievement).

The DA, having around 16% of the vote, remains the ‘official’ (largest) opposition party. They are still a long way from posing any real threat to the ANC at a national level – probably for at least the next 12 years – unless there is some radical realignment of the opposition parties. The DA won the Western Cape, and is the main opposition party in only 2 other provinces (Mpumalanga and Gauteng).

Interestingly, the DA’s election analysis document (available on their website, and which is a wonderful example of how to put a positive spin on a situation whilst ignoring some hard realities!) describes the DA as the “fastest growing” party in both the Free State and the Eastern Cape, despite the fact that COPE came from nowhere and leapfrogged above the DA in numbers of votes in both provinces!

COPE won around 7.5% of the national vote, so is well behind the DA overall, but oddly is now the 2nd largest party in 5 provinces (Northern Cape, North West, Limpopo, Free State and Eastern Cape) and so could also claim some recognition as a significant national opposition party.

Smaller parties – especially the Independent Democrats (ID), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and others, did less well and may be thinking about their political futures. Patricia de Lille of the ID has hinted that she may be thinking about what to do and that opposition parties should consider getting together.

If the smaller parties decide to roll up their tents and find a new political home, I would imagine that the ID and UDM and the remnants of the PAC would be more likely to move towards COPE than the DA – potentially, on 2009 voting figures, bringing COPE closer to the DA…

The Freedom Front Plus would probably be more likely to move towards the DA. It is not clear where the IFP votes would go but if COPE managed to win most of them we could have this scenario:

COPE (7.42%) + ID (0.92%) + UDM (0.85%) + ‘PAC’ (0.7%) + IFP (4.55%) = 14.45%

DA (16.66%) + FF+ (0.83%) + UCDP (0.37%) + MF (0.25%) = maybe 18%

In this scenario, the DA and COPE face a continuing battle for the role of official opposition, with the DA having to constantly look over its shoulder. The ANC would continue to win elections, with still no real alternative emerging. However if we put the realigned DA and COPE percentages together we go over 30% (maybe 32% on 2009 percentages).

Assuming that the ANC could struggle to retain 66% of the votes in the next elections, (and of course assuming that it stays together as a single party), we can then see the potential of a reorganised single opposition party going well over 35% in the 2014 election, and being able to position itself as an alternative government by 2019.

Do any of the opposition parties have the foresight to see this scenario, and the courage to take the first steps or make the first moves? My sense is that fortune will favour the brave.

Reasons to be cheerful!

One of the people who commented on my last post criticised my posting for lacking in insight and another assumed that I need some kind of political education. While I do not intend to defend myself on either charge, and being quite conscious that I do not pretend to be any kind of political analyst, I do feel it useful to perhaps explain the context in which I will on occasion share my perspectives on our political situation – apart from the fact that anyone has a right to comment on politics even if not a political commentator or analyst (or Helen Zille supporter!)

My purpose in writing my last posting was really to illustrate some of the ways in which politicians sometimes betray the trust of the electorate – by using trite slogans, trying to be on more than one electoral list at the same time, projecting image above policy, pretending to be what you are not etc.

And the reason the issue of trust in politicians is important, and related to this blog, is that trust in politicians is an aspect of social capital. Inasmuch as politicians set themselves up to be political leaders, trust in politicians goes to the core of how we see ourselves as a nation and what we want to become. In seeking our trust, and asking for our votes, politicians should be modelling and representing the social capital we need to create and invest in. Trust is therefore a vertical as well as a horizontal phenomenon, existing - or not existing – between people in communities and networks as well as between those who govern and aspire to govern, and those who are governed. (To read more about political capital, see Kenneth Newton's article 'Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy').

A healthy democracy is one in which significant numbers of people vote, and do so to make real choices about politics – policies and leadership. And to facilitate this process we need political parties and political leaders that are able to articulate a clear national vision and alternative choices that appeal to the people of our country on the basis of policies that rise above racial, tribal or sectarian divisions of the past.

Some further feedback I received on my previous posting is that I was surprisingly cynical and unappreciative! So I thought I would take up the challenge and point out various aspects that I do appreciate about the way the parties have conducted their election campaigns.

I am impressed with the moderation (in style and content) displayed by Jacob Zuma. He has been measured and calm in his rhetoric, and I believe this has helped to create a more peaceful atmosphere – important in the light of political tensions in KwaZulu Natal and the arrival of COPE on the political scene.

I am impressed by the DA’s commitment to working in coalition – this bodes well for the development of opposition politics in South Africa.

I guess I am impressed by the fact that COPE has just arrived on the political scene and has managed to conduct some kind of national campaign within a few short months.

I believe that the PAC has done well to come through its recent troubles and is presenting itself in a more coherent fashion to try and win votes.

The Independent Democrats have run a quite focused campaign and have also managed to project themselves as being slightly more than just a political machine for Patricia De Lille.

The ‘A’ party has done well to arrive on the political scene as a smart combination of smaller and minority parties that by themselves would not have been able to afford the deposit to run on the national list.

Well let me stop lest I am next accused of damning with faint praise! Considering that our democracy in South Africa is still less than 6,000 days old, and despite many reasons to be cynical or despairing, I believe that there are also quite a few positive signs that we are a steadily maturing political democracy.

The opposition hands it to the ANC

What a disappointing election campaign. With national elections on 22nd April I have seen slightly more evidence that something is happening than there is of the FIFA World Cup coming here next year (but not much).

No leaflet from any political party through my letter box as yet. No phone call, SMS, or e-mail from anyone. Some posters on lampposts, but none from COPE. The DA has pictures of Helen Zille, and some other people (but no idea who). The Freedom Front Plus has posters of happy white people, which at least makes clear who they are targeting. The ANC says that “together we can do more”, which is hardly inspiring.

COPE has marginalised itself by failing to produce anything substantial by way of policy. Some brief lines do now appear on their website. The 2 most recent ANC defectors who joined COPE (Sello Moloto and Dennis Bloem) between them made a farce of the whole process – Dennis Bloem by managing to appear on both the ANC and the COPE lists simultaneously (to appear on a list you have to sign nomination papers) and Sello Moloto by resigning as Limpopo Premier on joining COPE, but not quickly enough to avoid being COPE’s first, possibly last, and undoubtedly shortest-lived Provincial Premier for a few hours last week before the ANC hastily replaced him with an acting Premier (Cassel Mathale). Interestingly the Who's Who profile of Moloto shows that he was also a member of the South African Communist Party - I wonder if he also remembered to resign from the SACP before joining COPE?

The DA has all the colours of the South African flag incorporated into its new logo (er, except, er… black). Party leader Helen Zille effectively gave it up to the ANC when she descended into a name-calling tit-for-tat with ANC Youth Leaguer Julius Malema, only for President Motlanthe to chide Malema for being an unruly child, leaving Zille with lots of egg on her face and looking distinctly un-Presidential. In one well swoop, by calling Malema an uncircumcised youth, she probably alienated some hundreds of thousands of potential DA voters. Recognising the value of these type of silly exchanges, Malema on Saturday reportedly perpetuated the exchanges by referring to Helen Zille as a "toddler".

Helen Zille is now reduced to attacking COPE, saying that a vote for COPE is effectively voting for the ANC. I don’t quite get that, but it shows that the main concern of the DA is that they will lose support to COPE, which at least managed to remember to have some black in its logo.

So the likelihood is that the election will confirm
that the COPE breakaway does not represent a major
split within the ANC – more just another stage in the
continuing realignment of opposition parties.